Palladium: a study in pattern failures

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In a nutshell: we can use LTF failure tests as a clue to consider entry into a HTF consolidation area in anticipation of the re-emergence of momentum on the HTF. An invaluable skill, which we learned from our friend, trading legend Adam H. Grimes, back in the day.

Remek! Premium 2025 06 16 - For educational purposes only. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one's financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

PA 2025 06 16

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2025 06 17 6am, 11.30 EST update: so far so good, the “pattern failure pattern” is evolving.

PA 2025 06 17

PA 2025 06 17 11am EST

PA 2025 06 17 11.30am EST

PA 2025 06 18 10am EST

Update on 2025 06 26. No commentary is necessary.

PA 2025 06 26

ALSO OF NOTE
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SI's journey
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ZW 1R
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Our latest 1Rs
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The day of the 1Rs
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The anatomy of a 1R trade
Tracking ZC for a 1R
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The evolution of a 1R

Gold and the shrugged-off anti

“Gold shruggs off an anti. A turning point?”, we wrote last September in our analysis of the weekly GC chart. Evidence-based technical analysts will know: the failure of a weekly pattern is an event that deserves attention, the market itself being the only leading indicator.

Bullflags on weekly charts can take weeks and months to develop, and, as Remek! Premium subscribers can tell, we were not totally inactive on precious metals in the latter part of 2019. (See another example here.)

GC 2020 01 06

Today you switch on the radio and the world is talking about gold as if today’s chart were a surprise. (2011 anyone?) For evidence-based technical analysts, however, the structure has been clear for months, the real task has been to trade it within a given risk management framework.

Lastly, you may also want to ponder the two images on the right: a weekly gold chart and the idealized Wyckoff cycle. Time will tell if our hunch is a good one.

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