Calculating the probabilities of success

What are my chances of success in trading? There’s no trader who wouldn’t ask this question. While the answer can be as elaborate or as concise - and as mathematical or as intuitive - as we choose it to be, one way of quantifying the probabilities is by looking at our trading results: preferably backtesting and (SIM) forward-testing results over a large sample size, and using data from those tests as input in the calculation below.

• If you know the Accuracy of your trades and

• the Win/Loss Ratio of your trades

you can calculate the probability of success of your trading. Click below!

Calculate the probability of success of your trading

Also check out our other Remek! Calculators to quantify various aspects of your trading!

For the weekend: revisit the foundations

The foundations of successful trading, that is.

With a busy and good week behind us, and a Canadian Thanksgiving ahead of us, Saturday morning is the perfect time to revisit the foundations of successful trading:

• you need an edge to succeed in trading

• your edge manifests itself over a large number of trades

• so you’ll have to put on a large number of trades for your edge to surface

• you can only do that if you stay in the game

• so your risk must be such that the chance of blowing your account becomes, practically, zero

• for that, you need to know your longest expected losing streak, and the recommended minimum account size required by your strategy

• our System Metrics Calculator can calculate exactly that for you!
  
  And while it’s at it, it will also help you devise a six-month capital accumulation plan. Head to this page on this perfect weekend to do the work that must be done: the risk management plan your trading business deserves!

As for us, we’ll be back soon with our 2022 Canadian Thanksgiving Specials and the latest exciting news from the Remek! Research Lab! Stay tuned!