Probability of Success Calculator
What are my chances of success in trading, given the fact that this is a probabilistic enterprise? Enter your data below to find out!
Enter your Win/Loss Ratio* in the yellow cell
Look for your Accuracy**
See your chances of success (%)
*win/loss ratio: divide your average win with your average loss over a large number of trades
**how many percent of your trades, over a large number of trades, are winners?
The chart shows the interplay between two crucial inputs in your trading results: the Accuracy, the W/L Ratio. Note that even a relatively low accuracy may yield a reasonable chance of success if the W/L Ratio is high enough. Conversely, a less than 1.00 W/L Ratio may yield a reasonable chance of success if the Accuracy is high enough.
Example (for demonstration only):
Enter “3” as the Win/Loss Ratio in the yellow field. This means your average win is three times bigger than your average loss (a rather unlikely scenario, but we’re only using this to demonstrate the concept). Upon entry, you’ll see that your chances of success is 100% even if only circa 35% of your trades are winners (assuming you start trading with adequate capital.)