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Actionable market insight for technically motivated directional traders

  • I'm new to this. Where do I start?

    Start with the Documentation. See link above. Then you may want to read through the documentation of our software products to see how we go about interacting with the markets.

  • When is this page updated?

    We update this page, with our plan and outlook for the next trading day, by midnight Eastern Time prior to every trading session on the US futures markets. We also post updates as necessary during the day (see 'intraday' folder).

  • Your charts are too big for me

    This is the most frequent comment we receive. Consider the following:


    a) It's important to ask the question: why do we want to trade a given timeframe. If because that's where our edge is, fine. But if we want to trade a timeframe because that's what we think is the only thing we have money for, we're in trouble. We have to pick timeframe not based on our wishes, but on where our verified edge is.

    b) Ok, is there some good news?

    Yes, lots:

    - With us, you'll be trading with an edge. (Without an edge, there is no point in risking a single dollar on the markets.)

    - Now, most of our trades are intraday trades, the 240min timeframe still being six times less than a day.

    - Also, many of our 240min trade ideas can be adapted to even smaller timeframes by simply waiting for the next pullback on the lower timeframe (LTF) after the 240min trigger.

    - Also, many of our trade ideas are on currency futures. On relatively small accounts, they can be executed on forex, which allows more granular risk management.

    - Many of our trade ideas can also be executed on ETFs: say, GLD for a GC trade or TLT for bond futures.

    - Finally, on smaller accounts trades can be executed with micro contracts (MES, MGC etc.). While some will say "that way you can't make money", our answer is: but one will learn to fish, and that's worth all the money!

    It is clear our service allows the capital accumulation process to be implemented on any reasonably-sized account.

  • What do "technically motivated" and "directional" mean?

    Technically motivated traders make trading/investing decisions based on what price has done in the past. We, as technically motivated traders, do not normally include macroeconomic or fundamental factors (e.g. a given company's financials) into our thinking. We hold the view that patterns can be uncovered in price behaviour alone that have predictive value.

    Directional traders expect price to move up or down. For directional traders to make money, price needs to move. Note: there are non-directional trading styles as well, although those are beyond the scope of our focus on these pages.

  • Miscellaneous notes

    - Make sure you read the Documentation, become familiar with our Market Scanner, and follow the markets every day to build intuition to make best use of this service.

    - We tend to scale back activities on the indexes leading up to FOMC releases, while being aware that the FOMC news release can often serve as a catalyst. We also stay out of intraday trades 10 minutes before and after of major news releases.

    - We're often wrong. After all, we work with probabilities, and this work is all about the future, the yet unknown. We judge our work not by how many times we're right or wrong, but - to paraphrase one of the best traders of all time - by 'how much we make when we're right and how much we lose when we're wrong'.

Please note: instead of the live trade rooms, we’ll upload one video about an important aspect of successful trading weekly or as warranted, solely for Premium subscribers. Send in your comments or questions you’d like to be covered in this new video series. Put “Premium videos” in the subject line. Thanks!

Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one's financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

US Futures at a glance

FOR THE TRADING DAY OF FRIDAY, 2023 09 29

News at 8.30am (could be catalyst, tread carefully)

Indexes: not planning short trades. It’s okay to be on the sidelines. Or monitor for an upside move (which is what I’m doing)
Currencies: DX taking a break. Lesson on 6S. Long on MBT weekly
Commodities: CL flat, HO, RB have not triggered. Monitoring NG for a long breakout
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by

FOR THE TRADING DAY OF THURSDAY, 2023 09 28

News at 8.30am (could be catalyst, tread carefully)

Note: if you’re not long on CL based on last night’s setup, and/or you’re not going long on HO/RB on a trigger in tomorrow’s session, make sure you know why.

Indexes: standing by
Currencies: 6A in progress, 6N set up short. Other major pairs melt. .
Commodities: CL long in progress, HO, RB set up long
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by

FOR THE TRADING DAY OF wednesday, 2023 09 27

News at 8.30am, 10.30am ET

Indexes: support easily broken, next pivots below likely to get tested. A boring, lazy “slide” makes this difficult to trade.
Currencies: 6A triggering on daily. Other major pairs melt, and/or are in a slide (which is also difficult to trade).
Commodities: CL long setup
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by

FOR THE TRADING DAY OF TUESDAY, 2023 09 26

News at 10am

Note: suboptimal conditions on most markets, do not force trades. No video necessary tonight.

Indexes: watching bearflag on daily ES (structure full of tails on 240min, making it less attractive)
Currencies: Monitoring 6A for a daily short
Commodities: standing by
Financials: shorts done, standing by
Agriculturals: standing by

fOR THE TRADING DAY OF MONDAY, 2023 09 25

No News.

Indexes: A typical move from here would be: mean reversion (back to 4420ish on the ES)
Currencies: Monitoring 6A for a daily short, and 6E 240min short
Commodities: bullflag on SI
Financials: ZB next short setting up
Agriculturals: standing by

fOR THE TRADING DAY OF FRIDAY, 2023 09 22

News at 9.45am ET

Indexes: if you did the ES or RTY short, good! (I didn’t). Now a typical move would be: mean reversion (details in video)
Currencies: 6B 1R. Monitoring 6A for a daily short
Commodities: energies move, RB looks best. Lesson in GC RRR. Good call on SI (see yesterday’s video)
Financials: ZB 1R and more
Agriculturals: standing by

fOR THE TRADING DAY OF THURSDAY, 2023 09 21

News at 8.30am, 10am ET

Indexes: bears in control
Currencies: 6B, 6E, 6A shorts in progress.
Commodities: watching NG for an upside break
Financials: ZB short in progress
Agriculturals: standing by

fOR THE TRADING DAY OF WEDNESDAY, 2023 09 20

News at 10.30am ET (CL), FOMC 2pm (expect a catalyst)

Indexes: what looks like price rejection to the downside. 2pm expected to provide clues, standing by
Currencies: DX ready for next leg up. Watching 6B.
Commodities: energies CL 100? RB long setup, potential failure test on SI, bullflag on GC
Financials: ZB sitting on support, expect 2pm move
Agriculturals: standing by

fOR THE TRADING DAY OF TUESDAY, 2023 09 19

News at 8.30am ET

Note: no new information, no video necessary, we’ll be watching the morning session for any clarity on the indexes.

Indexes: timeframe conflict, sideways market, standing by
Currencies: DX ready for next leg up. Watching 6E. BTC 1R.
Commodities: energies CL 100? RB long setup, potential failure test on SI
Financials: ZB short setup
Agriculturals: ZL dropped from watch list

fOR THE TRADING DAY OF MONDAY, 2023 09 18

News at 10am ET

Indexes: the bulls failed on Friday, standing by for clues
Currencies: DX ready for next leg up. Watching 6E, 6A, 6N for a short. 6S may start to slide. BTC monitoring bullflag.
Commodities: energies CL 100?
Financials: ZB 1R
Agriculturals: ZL expected to move up

fOR THE TRADING DAY OF FRIDAY, 2023 09 15

News at 9.15am ET

Indexes: markets are moving, and we’re on that train, and there’s no reason you shouldn’t.
Currencies: “Watching 6E for a short on daily” - that was yesterday. Today we have a 1R. BTC reason to be long.
Commodities: energies continue to rip. Watching HG
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: watching ZL

fOR THE TRADING DAY OF THURSDAY, 2023 09 14

News at 8.30am ET (potential catalyst)

Indexes: leaning long, ready when the ES is, see chart
Currencies: Watching 6E for a short on daily
Commodities: HO 1R, RB tighten stop. NG long setup. HG has triggered.
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by

fOR THE TRADING DAY OF WEDNESDAY, 2023 09 13

News at 8.30am ET (potential catalyst)

Indexes: waiting for clarity
Currencies: DX strength expected to continue. Watching 6E for a short on daily
Commodities: HO, RB march on. watching NG for a long, watching SI
Financials: short setups on ZB/ZN
Agriculturals: ZS off the list for now

fOR THE TRADING DAY OF TUESDAY, 2023 09 12

No News.

Indexes: Watching RTY for clues. Expecting 240m bearflag on the ES to fail.
Currencies: monitoring for short setups, 6E, 6A
Commodities: HO, RB reason to be long, KC off the list,
Financials: shorts in progress ZB/ZN
Agriculturals: what could be the start of a bullflag on the ZS

fOR THE TRADING DAY OF MONDAY, 2023 09 11

No News.

Indexes: Watching RTY. Also watching YM. Expecting a move up, weekly bullflag to build.
Currencies: monitoring for short setups, 6E, 6A
Commodities: HO, RB continuing to be bullish, short in progress on KC
Financials: short setups on ZB/ZN
Agriculturals: what could be the start of a bullflag on the ZS

fOR THE TRADING DAY OF FRIDAY, 2023 09 08

No News.

Indexes: Not pursuing shorts. Expecting bear exhaustion.
Currencies: monitoring for shorts. Short setup on 6J
Commodities: HO, RB long setups/triggering
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by

fOR THE TRADING DAY OF THURSDAY, 2023 09 07

News at 8.30am, 11am (CL) ET

Indexes: Not pursuing shorts (yet). Waiting for clues.
Currencies: moves done, standing by
Commodities: HO, RB long setups
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: watching 240m bearflag on ZS (its failure would be a clue)

fOR THE TRADING DAY OF WEDNESDAY, 2023 09 06

News at 8.30am ET

Indexes: bearish signs on RTY. Waiting for clues.
Currencies: DX hits previous pivot, good shorts on major pairs completed or in progress (6E, 6A, 6C, 6J, 6N)
Commodities: monitoring energies for further longs
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by

fOR THE TRADING DAY OF TUESDAY, 2023 09 05

No News.

Indexes: Reason to be long.
Currencies: DX bullflag, look for shorts on major pairs (6E, 6A, 6C, 6J, 6N)
Commodities: monitoring energies for further longs
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by

fOR THE TRADING DAY OF friday, 2023 09 01

News at 8.30am, 10am ET (potential catalysts!)

Indexes: Reason to be long.
Currencies: DX bullflag, look for shorts on major pairs (6E, 6A)
Commodities: monitoring energies for further longs
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: ZS bullflag worth watching

Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one's financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.